Viewpoint: Sustainability: Malthus revisited?
نویسنده
چکیده
The sustainability debate concerns whether the world will experience stable or improving living standards for the foreseeable future, or whether the current trajectory will overtax the natural environment, leading to a ‘crash’ in living standards. This paper selectively reviews relevant research, focusing on both ecological concerns and technological progress, and asks whether sustainability would be problematic without rapid population growth. I suggest that continued demographic transition to lower fertility is the primary requirement for achieving sustainable development. This is, effectively, a modern translation of Malthus (1798). The paper also discusses the role of the Malthusian cycle in human evolution. JEL classification: Q56, J10 Durabilité: Malthus revisité? Le débat sur la durabilité pose la question à savoir si le monde va faire l’expérience d’un accroissement des niveaux de vie dans un avenir prévisible ou si la trajectoire présente va vite pressurer l’environnement naturel et engendrer une chute des niveaux de vie? Ce texte fait une revue sélective de la recherche pertinente, mettant l’accent sur les problèmes écologiques et le progrès technologique, et se demande si la durabilité serait problématique si l’on n’avait pas une croissance démographique rapide. L’auteur suggère que la transition démographique continue vers une fécondité plus faible est le prérequis primordial dans la quête d’un développement durable. Il s’agit d’une version moderne de Malthus (1798). Ce texte discute aussi du rôle du cycle malthusien dans l’évolution humaine.
منابع مشابه
ESEP Book 1 : Goals and Conditions for a Sustainable World
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